A loss on election day by President Donald Trump this year would mean the Republicans have lost the popular vote 7 out of the last 8 elections since 1992.
According to CNN, Republican presidential candidates will have averaged a mere 45.2% of the popular vote since 1992.
The optimistic view for the party is simply that the popular vote is the wrong metric for understanding Republicans’ strength.
The purpose of running in an election is to win the election, and the GOP is doing so on the presidential level.
After all, they have won three of the last seven presidential elections. And if Trump wins again in November, it will be four of eight.
The pessimistic view for Republicans is that the electoral college/popular vote splits have mostly been luck.
George W. Bush only won Florida and with it the presidency by 537 votes in 2000.
And despite losing the popular vote by millions, Trump won in 2016 by carrying the determining states by less than a point.
